LOOKING FOR THE RIGHT COUNT FOR FLU DEATHS.

Have the media been scaring people enough when it comes to reporting flu's death risk? Or too little?





CDC It helps to know how many people would have died from flu in an average year if you want to put the swine flu pandemic in perspective.
For as long as I can remember now, we've been saying 36,000 people die each year from the flu. When we've asked the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for updated figures, they told us 36K was the best they had.

Didn't seem quite right that it never changed year after year.

Now it turns out the 36K was calculated way back in 1999, when flu deaths hit a peak.


A new analysis of the past 31 flu seasons, put out by the CDC this afternoon, shows that 36K might have been a third too high. It's more like 23,607 per year, on average. But it all depends on how you slice the data.

The new average is an average of the past 31 seasons. It goes all the way back to 1976. But if you were to look at just the past 10 seasons, the average per year is higher — 32,743.

Or you can look at this way: In some years as few as 3,349 have died (back in 1986-7). But the highest annual average toll was 48,614, just seven seasons ago (2003-4).

The reason for this wide variation: Deaths peak when the H3N2 strain of influenza A dominates. When it's H1N1 or influenza B, the toll is quite a bit lower. Scientists can guess which strain may predominate in a given year, but it's only a guess. That's why the flu vaccine doesn't work in some years. But it usually does.

It may be that the average death toll will decline somewhat as immunization rates go up. The CDC is now recommending that everyone older than 6 months get a flu shot each year. (It used to be just children and seniors.)

The CDC wants reporters to drop the 36,000 annual estimate (at last) and instead say that the death toll ranges from 3,300 to 49,000.

The wide range doesn't seem quite right. After all, it's been 25 years since as few as 3,300 people died from the flu – most years since the death toll been anywhere from 4 to 16 times higher. So we won't be reporting the lower number very often, unless we're reviewing history.

We're still mulling over exactly what we'll say in our reporting – we definitely say "tens of thousands die from flu, on average, each year." But whether we get more specific than that is still under discussion. Your ideas are welcome.

TWO DEATHS IN FRANCE FROM MUTATED H1N1

The World Health Organization is investigating reports of mutations in the swine flu for virus, after 6 countries recorded cases in which the virus was transforming. Experts in France have analyzed 1200 strains and this was the first drug resistant case.

The mutation could increase the ability of the virus to affect the respiratory tracts and lung tissue, a statement from the French government's Health Surveillance Institute said.

TUNISIA HAS SUSPENDED THE HAJJ BECAUSE OF THE SWINE FLU

Minister of Religious Affairs Boubaker Akhzouri announced that the hajj had been postponed in order to" preserve human life".

The risk of the spread of swine flu and the impossibility of vaccinating candidates for the annual pilgrimage to Mecca was the reason.

This was an unprecedented decision that affects about 10,000 Tunisians

MENINGITIS OUTBREAK IN KERN COUNTY CALIFORNIA

There is a total number of 23 cases in the county since December. The school district sent a warning letter home with students about the disease.

Kevin Silberberg, Standard School District"s Superintendent said, " There is no way to know 100 percent that it didn't happen at school but the letter from the Health Department given to the parents said it was every indication that it didn't happen at school ".

Meningococcal disease is a bacterial infection that can cause meningitis. The disease can be spread by close contact like sharing lipsticks, and food, and can result in brain damage, hearing loss and even death. Many people can carry the infection and never get sick.

Doctors have been warned not to mistake meningitis with swine flu. A friend of mine called from Arizona Friday. She has been in the hospital for a week with meningitis

A good teaching tool for children is: www.germywormy.com

THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION REPORTS 77,000 SWINE FLU CASES

332 people have died from swine flu. The WHO states that 6,308 new A(H1N1) cases were reported including 21 deaths since last Monday.

The United Kingdom has the largest increase with 2,288 new infections including two deaths bringing a total of 6,538 infections including three deaths.

Chili has also added 1,025 cases including 5 deaths. It's total number of infections are 6,211 including 12 deaths.

Some affected countries no longer keep track of all cases and others do not report for the 3 time weekly bulletins.

ARE SWINE FLU DEATHS UNDERCOUNTED ?

My friend's daughter was a young school teacher in Los Angeles and she died last week. She told her mother she wasn't feeling well so her mom took her to the hospital. She went in to see the doctor and they were giving her some breathing treatments.

Her mother was in the waiting room when the doctor came out and told her that her daughter was dead. The mother didn't know why her daughter was dead. She was working everyday and she walked into the hospital on her own and didn't show any symptoms or anything.

I asked the mother whether her daughter had any students going back and forth across the border and she didn't know. The health department doesn't usually let the public know if there is an epidemic unless it gets out of control. They were reluctant to give a level 6 alarm, but the World Health Organization did announce a pandemic.

TEACHER AND STUDENTS QUARANTINED IN YICHANG, CHINA

The group is from the Pacific Ridge School in Carlsbad, California. It consists of five students and one teacher. All 42 members of the group, 35 ninth-graders and 7 teachers recieved the anti-viral medication Tamiflu, but only a few contracted the swine flu. Most of them have returned to the United States.

BRITISH FAMILY WAS HELD AT GUNPOINT IN EGYPT OVER FLU PANIC.

Mr. Harbut, from Southampton, wife Sasha and four children-Echo, two, Lennon, five, Nikita, seven, and Nathaniel, eight,were held in quarantine while on holiday in Egypt.

He tried to escape the isolation unit but there was no way out. The family was not allowed out of the hospital. As he walked toward the front gates, the armed guards came toward him holding their guns.

After all of the tests were confirmed as negative, he was allowed out of the hospital.